Matt
Gone playing Dragon Age Origins
Premium
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC
 ·North State Commun..
|  Is Blu-Ray a Failure?
»www.cringely.com/2009/06/is-blu-···failure/
I enjoy reading Robert X. Cringley's thoughts and today he published a blog post that I think has merit. Blu-Ray - as it was intended - has been a failure. He postulates that Blu-Ray was intended to do for DVD what DVD did for Blu-Ray ... that is, get you to replace your movie library with Blu-Ray discs. So far, that isn't happening.
He has a few different thoughts as to why, but less than stellar sales of the PS3, the competition from upconversion DVD players, the resistance to adoption by other companies such as Apple because of the impending 1080p video download market, and the fact that most people had to not only buy a Blu-Ray player, but an HDTV to go along with it, are a few reasons he throws out.
He agrees that among cinephiles, Blu-Ray is and will continue to be a run-away success, but that is a small percentage of the market - Cringley states 5% which I think is generous. The rest of the folks are perfectly happy with non Blu-Ray sources for the reasons mentioned above.
My opinion is he's right. I have a Blu-Ray player, but that's because I built a HTPC and needed a DVD drive for it anyway. Otherwise, I'd be perfectly happy with online delivery methods and DVD upconversion. Non-techies like most of my family don't care either way and certainly aren't rushing out to replace their DVD collections with Blu-Ray discs.
So, what say you? Is Blu-Ray shaping up to be a failure even though it is without a doubt a gorgeous format? |
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Greg_Z
Premium
join:2001-08-08
Springfield, IL
 ·Comcast
| Cost is one reason that it is not being adopted, and with the recession, people are not purchasing the toys like they where 2 years ago. Give BR another 2 years, and you will see another price drop, and once the discs get cheaper, then maybe more people will adopt.
Also factor in the live streaming abilities with Netflix, Xbox online, Amazon.com, also people are choosing to stream vs purchasing discs.
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I threw out the map a long time ago. Now I follow my own direction! |
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Jahntassa
What, I can have feathers
Premium
join:2006-04-14
Conway, SC | reply to Matt
If they truly intended Blu-ray to replace DVD then yes, it failed.
As one of the few ways to view 1080p content, then not really.
There is no chance of it going mainstream with the recession and high prices of discs / players. |
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e_dub
franknbeans
Premium,VIP
join:2001-08-12
kickin ass
| I don't think it's a failure because like that blog; it has the same misconception/mis-information as other posts, blogs, articles, etc....
Blu-ray was is not intended to replace DVD only compete/offer better video and audio. ( DVD was not made to replace VCR, it just eventually took over)
Up-converting DVD is not close to blu-ray, why are many kidding themselves. The sound of blu-ray is amazing.
Unlike like VCR & DVD battle back in the day, DVD vs Blu battle is hindered by the recession.
I'm not saying Blu-ray would be winning by now if there's wasn't a recession, but this topic would have been dead a long time ago.
Unless we get bandwidth like Korea, Japan, China or EU with no caps, video downloading will not knock out blu-ray anytime soon.
I have a large DVD collection and I still watch DVDs, but any movie I buy now is on blu-ray. I have a 1080p projector, a receiver that decodes all HD audio so why would I prefer DVD, HD streaming or downloads. Neither can give me 1080p and HD audio at the same time. (unless it's torrent download of blu-ray movies  ) |
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Its a Secret
Whatever
Premium
join:2008-02-23
U B Funny
1 edit | Dude, get off the ganj.
All formats were designed to replace the predecessors, to keep those bucks rolling in.
Hollywood: The gift that keeps on screwing you. |
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howie
Premium,MVM
join:2003-04-08
Little Falls, NJ
| reply to Matt
It took a number of years for DVD to surpass VHS as the home video format of choice and I think the same is true of BD. As more and more consumers replace their aging square CRT TV's for new HDTV's, High Definition Blu-Ray home videos will slowly, but surely, replace SD DVD's as people will want to get the best viewing experience out of their new HDTV's. |
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dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast
| reply to Matt
As the digital age ascends upon us, more and more people will be getting new HDTVs.
No amount of up-conversion can ever get close to Blu-ray - and after dropping 1-4 Grand on a new killer display, people will want to feed it the best available.
Hate to break this news to people, Blu-ray is it! 
Been trying to tell people for years now(just like way back when with DVDs), New and Improved!
DVDs are SD, period!
HDTVs need a HD source.
Cable and Sat - they do ok.
OTA is better!
Blu-ray stomps them all in the weeds.
Streaming or downloads? When ISPs are starting to cap us?
Yeah, that'll work out well, won't it? 
Nothing will ever replace Physical Media.
If my internet chokes and pukes, I can still play one of my discs.
If I am away, I can still play one of my discs.
If I come visit you, I can bring a few of my discs.
These articles and "blogs" are amusing! LOL!
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Think outside the Fox... Opera |
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Loco
Premium
join:2002-11-09
So Cal | reply to Matt
Yep, it's a big failure.
I have a Sony Blu-Ray player here at home and we rarely even use it. |
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GameGuy369
join:2004-07-09
Olathe, KS
clubs:
| reply to Matt
I think most people who get a 50"+ TV tend to want a Blu-Ray player of some sort if they like movies. Not all, but I would think most.
My situation was backwards, I had a PS3 hooked up to a 27" tube. Then I hooked up a 42" 1080p and never looked back. Now I have it hooked up to a 67" 1080p and I be damned if I watch anything less than the highest quality, |
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Rook008
Miles To Go
join:2002-02-05
Far Rockaway, NY | reply to Matt
Not a failure, but not "there" yet, either. Prices coming down should help. |
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djrobx
join:2000-05-31
Valencia, CA
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| reply to dadkins
said by dadkins  :DVDs are SD, period! HDTVs need a HD source. Cable and Sat - they do ok. OTA is better! Blu-ray stomps them all in the weeds. DVDs may be SD, but they're mostly anamorphic widescreen and film material can be output in progressive scan mode, which makes them look significantly better than typical broadcast SD on HDTVs.
Bluray simply isn't cheap enough for average people to get that itch to start collecting. They need to drop those prices to DVD levels really soon, because online/VOD rental convenience WILL eat into their potential market. People are easily fooled into thinking that 1080p online rentals are "bluray quality" just as they think horrid XM/Sirius satellite radio is "CD quality".
DVD really exploded when the sub-$10 bargain bins started popping up. Bluray needs to folllow that example.
Although I'm a fan of high quality, even I have to admit, on my 50" plasma, MPEG-4 HD movies converted down to DVD size (4.7gb) still looks very good, much better than DVD.
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AT&T U-Hearse
Your funeral. Delivered.
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dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast
| Blu-ray just celebrated it's 3 year birthday - June 20, 2006.
3 years in and Blu-ray is doing way better than DVD did, and prices are dropping WAY faster than DVD has.
How many years did DVD take to be adopted?
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Think outside the Fox... Opera |
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Rook008
Miles To Go
join:2002-02-05
Far Rockaway, NY
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| I agree that Blu-Ray just needs time, but DVD was a huge step up from what many were using when DVD was introduced (VHS tapes). Except for better Video and Audio, if you have the right set-up to see and hear the difference, Blu-Ray isn't such an improvement over DVD.
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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats." - H. L. Mencken
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dadkins
Can you do Blu?
Premium,MVM
join:2003-09-26
Hercules, CA
·Comcast
| said by Rook008 :I agree that Blu-Ray just needs time, but DVD was a huge step up from what many were using when DVD was introduced (VHS tapes). Except for better Video and Audio, if you have the right set-up to see and hear the difference, Blu-Ray isn't such an improvement over DVD. Many people(seen it here even) are displaying Blu-ray on 720p HDTVs and they have stated there isn't that great of a difference - well, Yeah!
You're only missing a million pixels.
If you have a good 1080p HDTV and are viewing it from the proper distance for fully resolved 1080p - you can really see the difference.
Just switching channels on your HDTV service you can tell between the 720 channels and the 1080 channels.
Blu-ray -1920x1080.
vs
DVD - 720x480.
*I* can sure see the difference.
--
Think outside the Fox... Opera |
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Rook008
Miles To Go
join:2002-02-05
Far Rockaway, NY
·PHONE POWER
·RoadRunner Cable
| I think you've mentioned that you can see the difference somewhere before. 
But for the Blu-Ray experience to be really different, you would need a Blu-Ray Player, a 1080p TV, a receiver that can output the improved Audio, and be within the proper viewing range. The first time I watched some 1080p content on my 37" LCD from about 8 feet away, I was not blown away. Re-arranging my TV room seemed like too much to ask for a better picture.
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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats." - H. L. Mencken
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sholling
Premium
join:2002-02-13
Hemet, CA
| reply to Matt
In my opinion Cringley has pretty much always been a pretentious idiot. Blu-Ray stumbled for a long time because of the format wars. Those are all over and BD won.
The second stumble was the price of the player. Sears.com had Blu-Ray players for $100 this past weekend, and $160 is getting common. Adjusted for inflation that's about what I paid for my first DVD player and about 1/10 what I paid for my first VCR. I put the magic price point for mass uptake at $125. We're getting close.
The rate of BD adoption by consumers is also exceeding the rate of early DVD adoption. As the price comes down adoption accelerates just like it did for DVD.
His third hoof-in-mouth was siting replacement of DVD collections as a milestone. Most people aren't even considering it. It took a decade for that to happen with the move from VCR to DVD. I've only replaced a few favorites - but all new purchases are Blu-Ray and if you catch a sale you can get some really reasonable prices. I think I paid $39 for the BD Band of Brothers in a collectors tin. But like most I rent.
His 4th fallacy (idiocy?) is that there aren't enough HDTVs. With the change to digital and the adoption of flat screen as the must have item for every home he's living in the past. Yes there will be Luddites with old tube sets and a VCR but flat screen HDTVs are now mainstream. Just try to buy anything else.
Will Bu-Ray survive? Probably for at least 10 years. Look how long laser disc lasted. Will it become the new mainstream format, possibly and if so it will have staying power. Frankly I have less confidence in the 1080P download services taking off in less than 10 years. 20% of the county can't get anything like broadband, 2/3 of those with broadband don't have the necessary speed, and those with fast enough connections are getting slapped with caps.
I think it's an open question, but no more so than DVD was when it started out. Price of the players and the videos is the key.
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"Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
--FREDERIC BASTIAT-- |
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dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
Premium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ | reply to dadkins
As was David, I was also blown away by blu ray.
Now i have to really like a movie to pay the $10+ premium you pay for the blu ray version.
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When I gez aju zavateh na nalechoo more new yonooz tonigh molinigh - Ken Lee |
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dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
Premium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ
| reply to sholling
said by sholling :Sears.com had Blu-Ray players for $100 this past weekend, and $160 is getting common. Probably profile v1
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When I gez aju zavateh na nalechoo more new yonooz tonigh molinigh - Ken Lee |
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sholling
Premium
join:2002-02-13
Hemet, CA
| said by dvd536 :said by sholling :Sears.com had Blu-Ray players for $100 this past weekend, and $160 is getting common. Probably profile v1 1.1
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"Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
--FREDERIC BASTIAT-- |
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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
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join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
·AT&T Yahoo
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| reply to Matt
Blu-Ray will do just fine as soon as they stop trying to sell Blu-Ray movies for a premium over DVD.
As soon as Blu-Ray discs and DVD discs are the same retail price, Blu-Ray will go up like a rocket.
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"Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini
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