ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Long Term Weather Forecast Discussion JUne 28-July 9
429 Pm EDT Thu. June 25, 2009
Models are in agreement with the pattern for the period June 28-July 2 with a trough Across western Canada and the Northwest. Teleconnections is in agreement with the pattern, with negative anomaly in the southeast Bering Sea and positive anomalies between Canada and Greenland favors more troughing over the Northeast than the over the Northwest. A broad ridge will be in between across the northern Plains.
The ensemble means are in fair agreement in depicting a weak trough offshore the West coast, a ridge centered over the Southwest, and an amplified trough over the East. Past runs have been trending a retrogression and amplification of the eastern trough and a westward shift of the subtropical ridge from the southern Plains into the Southwest. The European and the Canadian ensemble means are the most aggressive in shifting the eastern trough westward, while the GFS ensemble means solutions indicate a trough axis closer to the East coast. The amplified trough over the East will likely result in below normal temperatures over the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Above normal temperatures are forecast across much of the West, the southern Plains, and the lower Mississippi Valley. Several fronts are progged to cross the East into the South. A stalled boundary should result in heavy rainfall across the eastern gulf coast and Florida where above normal precipitation is expected. Shortwave troughs tracking through the broad longwave trough over eastern North America will likely result in an above normal precipitation across the northern Plains, the upper Mississippi Valley, and New England. Below normal precipitation is expected across the southern Plains. Monsoonal moisture spreading north, will likely result in above normal precipitation across the central and southern Rockies.
Models are in poor agreement in the pattern for the period July 3-9. Models disagree in the develops of an amplified trough over the West which is way out of line with respective ensembles. The Canadian ensemble mean maintains a broad trough over eastern North America, while the GFS ensemble means raise heights across the Southeast as a trough lifts out. Below normal heights are forecast from the Mississippi Valley to the East coast with slightly above normal heights expected across the West. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Northeast, and the mid-Atlantic. Near or above normal temperatures are forecast across the western and central U.S. Above normal precipitation is forecast across the East. The position of the upper-level ridge over the Southwest, will favor a monsoonal flow across the Southwest.
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